Content
- They’re off in the Champion Bumper
- Cheltenham Festival Trainer Form Conclusions
- Aidan O’Brien runner underestimated as one of three Breeders’ Cup picks
- Horse Racing Tips: A 10/1 pick tops our Chelmsford fancies tonight
- You are unable to access oddsdigger.com
- Cheltenham Festival Novice Grade 1’s (excl. Bumper & Triumph Hurdle)
- More Horse Racing Tips
- Paddy Power: Bet £10 on first race and get free £5 on all remaining races
- Bond Spirit
- 50 Ultima Handicap Chase (Grade 3 handicap, 3m1f)
- 30 Queen Mother Champion Chase (Grade 1, 2m)
- Champion Chase – 2-0 to the Girls
- Saturday 27th July’s Racecards for UK & Ireland
- 50 – Coral Cup – Marlborough’s preview and tips
El Fabiolo “occasionally quite clumsy”, but agree the Irish Arkle is the best form on show so far. But this race is likely to be the best form by season end. Saint Roi is interesting – “jockey admitted falling off” last time. Won’t get involved in any pacey business on the front end and so is playable e/w at the prices.
They’re off in the Champion Bumper
CHECKANDCHALLENGE is a lightly raced and improving three-year-old who looks well up to making his mark in Group 3 company. Back on the Flat, Make My Day ran a fine second to Super Superjack at Ascot in May before again taking the silver medal behind Black Kalanisi at Goodwood the following month. On both occasions, the six-year-old was strong at the finish over two miles and things didn’t go to plan when my selection returned 13 th of 19 – Reshoun was ahead in fifth – in the Ascot Stakes at the Royal meeting last month. In the Oaks, only eight runners go to post in one of the weakest runnings of the Classic I can remember.
Cheltenham Festival Trainer Form Conclusions
More sobering for those taking the short odds is that he’d saddled three odds on favourites, and six priced 9/2 or shorter. 10 of the last 14 winners had raced at a previous Cheltenham Festival. 13 of the last 14 winners ran in a Grade 1 or Grade 2 race last time out. All of the last 14 winners had finished top 3 on their last start (when completing). The only slight reservation I can think of – and it is really slight – is that he’s not had to jump a hurdle at the business end in his last two races; so while he’s been well on top each time, we don’t know how he hurdles under pressure. By honing discipline and patience in your wagering strategies, you not only enhance your chances of long-lasting success but also develop a deeper understanding of the intricate world of horse racing.
Aidan O’Brien runner underestimated as one of three Breeders’ Cup picks
- A Champion Chase that has been El Fabiolo’s to lose for much of the season.
- Northern Ticker ran a clear career best last time and is on the upgrade.
- Nicholls’ 1 from 30 record since 2013 is equally difficult to excuse.
- Having ticked the race conditions boxes, and with a pace setup almost certain to play to his A game, he looks a ‘banker’ (relatively speaking).
- The worst performing factor that has failed to produce a single winner is when runners had 5 career wins in Flat (AW) races, when backing these the trend shows a record of 0-71.
Aidan O’Brien’s Breeders’ Cup winner Unquestionable set the pace, with fellow Ballydoyle runner Henry Longfellow just in behind, while William Buick dropped Notable Speech out in the rear. Hannon has not been shy in making it known how highly he regards his colt, although he could have been forgiven if his confidence had been slightly dented when he was beaten by Notable Speech at Newmarket. Bit to find with Politologue on Tingle Creek form; unlikely winner. The course commentator has the opportunity to whip Cheltenham in to a frenzy right from the first race.
Horse Racing Tips: A 10/1 pick tops our Chelmsford fancies tonight
The Williams team have excellent contacts in France and have a long history of recruiting nice hurdlers from across the channel. I’d love him to be up there from the outset as there isn’t much pace elsewhere in the race and that looks the best scenario for Jack Tudor to get a truly run race to suit. It must be a recurring issue they keep having to tinker with. Of course, if a horse keeps running badly you’d be wise to give it a wide berth, but ignoring one or two bad runs can lead you to back winners at decent prices.
You are unable to access oddsdigger.com
Just ask those that swear by each of the above, and the countless many other race betting systems out there. At the end of the day, this is a results business, and if a system isn’t driving results, punters won’t stick with it for long. While some will sneer at systems and programmatic strategies, the proof of the pudding is always in the eating. When it comes to racing, the sheer choice on the betting front is enormous, and, frankly, a little difficult to comprehend for a beginner.
Cheltenham Festival Novice Grade 1’s (excl. Bumper & Triumph Hurdle)
Over the course of his first 15 months (Jan 21 to March 22), he performed so well that we setup a Free Tipster service for SBC members to follow. Thus ‘No Foto Needed’ was born – a way for him to supply advice via this specially curated SBC run service, without having to put his real name to its operation. No Foto Needed secured 18.84% of the vote, beating some well respected and high profile services in the process.
More Horse Racing Tips
- A small bet on a race can be a thrilling way to enjoy the action.
- Detailed race previews enable you to understand the nuances of each race, helping you make more informed and strategic choices.
- Down the years, this race has been more of a kingmaker for the Champion Hurdle than the Supreme in spite of that one’s recent alumnus Constitution Hill flying the flag for the day one curtain raiser.
- The Mares’ Hurdle had been dominated by Willie Mullins almost since its inception in 2008.
- All of the last 16 winners had raced at least once since the start of Newbury’s Coral Cup Handicap Chase meeting the previous November.
- He’s finished second in five of his last six starts, a run that includes the G1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase of last year and the Kim Muir a month later.
- Just as exciting is horserace betting, which allows you to back your favourite horse and jockey by placing bets at your bookie shop, or log in and place bets on your sports betting website.
- A race which is likely to run at a furious gallop, with number contenders for this valuable prize for the Hunter Chasers and amateur jockeys.
I am definitely not advocating that this system is one that punters should use ‘blind’ at the 2023 festival, but it may offer a potential starting point, to at least give you a pool of runners to consider. Also, for readers with little time to study form, I am confident there are plenty of systems around that are less likely to produce a profit at the Festival than this one. The Evens to 9/4 bracket has Bolts Up Daily proved the most profitable in ROI terms and, taking shorter priced runners as a whole, the market has been a pretty good guide. Combining all runners priced 6/1 or shorter we have seen 182 winners from 807 (SR 22.6%) for a small BSP loss of £7.42 (ROI –0.9%). LH – Feel like the Warwick race has been overplayed in terms of Jonbon form. Calico (2nd there) showed he’d improved when winning next time.
Paddy Power: Bet £10 on first race and get free £5 on all remaining races
Hence any female running this year at Cheltenham who won last time out might be a horse to consider as a betting opportunity. Epatante has been thumped twice in Grade 1’s by Constitution Hill this season; and then beat a field of inferior mares in appropriate fashion. She’s only run once at this longer distance, when winning the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle easily last season. Her main market rival that day fell at the last as Epatante was looming upsides, but she looked to have had him covered at that point. She is holding her form fairly well and is unexposed at the trip.
Bond Spirit
It has been the obvious race for him since last year and we’ve just had to creep there. The owners have been very good and said if that is what you want to do then go for it. “Luke got it right and there was enough room for him to keep pushing and get where we wanted. It was one of those races where I can’t remember one going so well since Alborada got the pacemaker and High-Rise didn’t (in the 1999 Champion Stakes). “I was very concerned about the draw, I had a thoroughly bad day when I found out his position.
Four of them, though, were going better than the labouring evens-favourite in fifth and an upset on the scale of last year’s looked on the cards. Learn more about Steve’s work by applying for your free information pack including full results and long term statistical analysis by clicking here. Second feature from Steve analysing handicaps and ratings following his insight into his work as a professional backer.
Being late in the flat season, the race can be run on testing but it does usually drum up plenty of interest with good-sized fields. Once we’ve identified likely fast finishers in the field, we need to overlay the circumstances in which they recorded their fast finish on top of how we perceive today’s race will be run. If, on the other hand, there was no obvious pace horse – or a single front runner – we should probably be more interested in the 111% fast finisher, which has shown its ability to quicken takingly off a pedestrian pace.
Back From Dubai had some Class 6 questions to answer but this 0-55 required very little winning. 9/4 was hardly rock n’ roll but he was against quantity rather than quality opposition, even allowing for the grade. Another deep race with plenty of experienced campaigners making their seasonal returns. Whilst the race is open on paper, it may be worth chancing WINDSOR AVENUE.
It is no surprise to see horses that ran in Ireland LTO coming out on top in terms of strike rate, returns and A/E indices. There is, however, one Irish course where caution might be advised, and that is Gowran Park. Just 2 winners from 90 runners in the last 15 years prepped there, with losses amounting to over 88p in the £. The data show a poor record for odds-on runners, but in general short- to mid-range prices do quite well. The cut off price looks to be at 14/1 – at this price and bigger Grade 1 runners have performed poorly.
The latter pair are both trained by Willie Mullins and both came with ostensibly good French form. Gold Dancer could conceivably step forward significantly from his first run for his new trainer but he’d very much need to. Down the years, this race has been more of a kingmaker for the Champion Hurdle than the Supreme in spite of that one’s recent alumnus Constitution Hill flying the flag for the day one curtain raiser. Gallagher simply looks at Ballyburn and says, “hold my drink”… While the accuracy of Free Horse Racing Tips cannot be guaranteed, Get Your Tips Out have a proven track record of successful predictions.
Goodwood on Friday: Tips and runners for every race including the King George Stakes
- He finished off strongly when fourth at Wolverhampton on his latest start.
- Now, field sizes are smaller, the quality of bipeds and quadrupeds alike is higher, and it is consequently a far more predictable affair.
- He looked a strong stayer at last season’s Festival and this test might be just the ticket.
- “He has been good all year, at Doncaster and then Sandown, and he ran a great race in the Lockinge where he came right away from all the horses he raced with.
His progressive chase form over three miles plus is enough to put him in with a solid shout anyway, but it was his latest performance, when chasing home the smart Our Duke over 2½ miles that underlines his class. The trip would have been plenty sharp enough for Presenting Percy – he had won over 3m 5f two runs earlier – yet he traded blows with a horse that is third favourite for Friday’s Timico Gold Cup. As the coming week progresses the ground will be drying which brings a number of factors into play.
- Five-year-old Marie’s Rock had won a Listed mares race at Taunton, and Love Envoi was a year away from making her debut.
- Just one of the 94 runners sporting blinkers or cheekpieces won – Our Vic in the 2008 Ryanair – and such horses’ place strikerate is poor, too.
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- There is a sliding scale of strike rates as you would expect.
- Not the sort of race I would get too seriously involved with.
- If you’ve got this far, I’m safely assuming you’re at least receptive to the notion that finding bargains is different from – and better than – buying cheap stuff.
- Of course, if a horse keeps running badly you’d be wise to give it a wide berth, but ignoring one or two bad runs can lead you to back winners at decent prices.
- APPLE AWAY is seemingly held on Reynoldstown form, but I thought she was better than the bare result at Ascot, jumping really well on the whole and trying to battle back when getting squeezed out at the final fence.
The percentage shown is the percentage of the total number of runners who fell under that factor. High percentages are less appealing than lower ones as you would expect them to do well. If that’s correct, we’d expect a steady tempo to the race; after all, if you’re leading without any contention, it makes sense usually to conserve as much energy for the finish as possible. With three or four habitual waited-with sorts in opposition, which if any have shown the ability to quicken off a potentially false gallop? Our Fast Finishers report suggests the well-backed Dingle, but only tentatively at best. The caveat is that we’re looking for a horse that we hope will get an uncontested lead; that is, one which looks as though it is the lone pace angle.
Luck in running is needed by all; most have a little more meat on their price than this lad. Willie is 0/14 in this race but went very close last year when Saint Sam was second (Ciel De Neige 3rd in 2019, too). Of that last named cohort, maybe Teahupoo has advanced his claims since the turn of the year. He’s still yet to race in Grade 1 company, but has been dominant in winning a brace of Grade 3’s either side of a Grade 2 score. He’s looked like there is plenty more to come but his potential is more than factored into quotes of 8/1 especially when noting his lack of form on a sound surface (for which, granted, he could improve, though I don’t expect him to). Trained by Colin Tizzard, his sole defeat in four progressive chase starts was when well seen off, but still best of the rest, behind Edwardstone in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase at Sandown in December.
“Annoyingly I never felt I was going to get to the winner, but I can’t fault him. I’m so pleased and the connections are so happy, he’s definitely got a Group One in him. Hayley Turner was proud of the performance of Docklands after the pair combined to fill the runner-up spot. “Nurlan was keen to keep Silvestre on Charyn after his winning start at Doncaster and it was Nurlan’s decision to keep him on right the way through.
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That’s a potential knock for the strong Willie Mullins-trained fancy, Stattler, who is unbeaten in two fencing contests. In 2013, Mullins won with the unbeaten-in-three Back In Focus, but more recently both 9/4 Ballyward (fell) and 10/11 Carefully Selected (unseated) have succumbed to their inexperience at the obstacles. Still, Stattler’s form credentials are robust and his stamina is assured if his leaping holds up at the expected quicker tempo on quicker turf. Pop back to that Aintree G1 and we find our other joint favourite. There was little between Jonbon and El Fabiolo in Liverpool and they may again be hard to separate. Willie’s contender has had two chasing starts, winning by 19L and 10L, the latter in the Grade 1 Irish Arkle at the Dublin Racing Festival.
Partnered again by Patrick Mullins, he’s expected to perform well. Mullins also saddles Cantico, ridden by stable jockey Paul Townend, who cruised to victory at Navan last month. But there’s a ton of back class in the field this time headed by Gold Cup winner Minella Indo, and Savills and National Hunt Chase winner Galvin. Add in this year’s Troytown and former Thyestes Chase winner Coko Beach and a raft of credible place contenders at least and it makes for what is very likely the deepest field in Glenfarclas history.
“I wouldn’t complain at Alexis (Pouchin); I’m happy with the ride, but he started galloping the last 200 metres when he had the gap. When he saw the horse coming along it was too late, the other two went already. But it was good to see that he is of the level to run with the best. “I just really hope the that one day they go a really good gallop so that we get to see him really show his true potential. At the moment he’s just showing how versatile he really is. POLITOLOGUE Has enjoyed a fine season but was no match for Altior at Newbury recently; tough and consistent, he has place prospects. DOUVAN Suffered serious injury in this race a year ago and not run since; hugely talented but remains to be seen if he can recover that level of form.